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No, RSA does not stop working in 2030. NIST IR 8547, still a draft, proposes that RSA at 112-bit security, such as RSA-2048, be deprecated<\/em> after 2030. It also proposes that every quantum-vulnerable public-key algorithm, including RSA, ECDSA and ECDH at any key size, be disallowed<\/em> after 2035.<\/p>\n So the honest answer to “is RSA deprecated in 2030” is: partly, and only on paper so far. This article covers what the NIST IR 8547 RSA deprecation in 2030 actually proposes and which algorithms are affected. It also covers the earlier deadlines that may reach you first and what to do now.<\/p>\n NIST IR 8547, titled “Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards,” was released as an initial public draft on NIST’s CSRC site<\/a> on November 12, 2024. It sets out how US federal systems should move from today’s public-key cryptography to the post-quantum algorithms NIST has standardized.<\/p>\n The concern is that a large, fault-tolerant quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could break RSA and elliptic-curve cryptography. Nobody can say when such a machine will exist. Recent hardware results, such as those discussed in our piece on magic state cultivation and Google’s Willow chip<\/a>, show steady engineering progress, though not a working code-breaker.<\/p>\n As of mid-October 2026, trackers such as Quantum Sentinel’s IR 8547 explainer<\/a> still describe the document as a draft. That means the dates are proposals that could change in a final version. Check the CSRC page directly before treating any date as settled.<\/p>\n The two key words come from NIST’s transition vocabulary, the same terms used in SP 800-131A. Encryption Consulting’s overview of IR 8547 and SP 800-131A<\/a> explains how they connect.<\/p>\n The draft does not treat all key sizes the same way. Only algorithms at 112-bit security get the 2030 deprecation step. Algorithms at 128 bits or more skip it and go straight to disallowed after 2035, according to Quantum Sentinel’s summary<\/a> and PQ Audit’s IR 8547 timeline<\/a>.<\/p>\nWhat NIST IR 8547 is, and why it’s still a draft<\/h2>\n
Deprecated vs. disallowed: the 2030 and 2035 dates explained<\/h2>\n
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